Strategic Arrivals Recommendation Tool

During the conduct of a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) in 2012 and 2013, the Mosaic ATM team first developed the Strategic Arrivals Recommendation Tool concept, or START. Though this concept was developed in direct response to Miami Center's request to our team to provide a tool that could assist them during the summer convection season, this concept could be applied anywhere in the NAS. Given that the Florida region has some of the most challenging convection to predict, we believe that if START can be successful for ZMA, it can be adapted to support TMUs in other areas of the NAS where convection is an issue. START is the use of en route weather translation and airspace capacity models to the challenge of strategically planning arrival flows in advance of expected capacity reductions due to convective weather. START provides probabilistic en route capacity estimates for corridors used by arriving flights, models the impact of capacity reductions on traffic, and then provides recommendations for strategic Traffic Management Initiatives that better balance demand and capacity given the uncertainty in the weather. In Phase I, our objective is to demonstrate the feasibility and potential benefit of the START automated recommendations concept. We intend to accomplish this by developing and testing specific algorithms that will be necessary to achieve this goal and providing a preliminary benefit assessment of the concept. These include the airspace capacity model and the reroute recommendation optimization model. Our Phase II objectives are to integrate the algorithms developed in Phase I into the START prototype software. We will continue to work with Miami Center and American Airlines to vet START as the capabilities mature, ensuring that the tool is meeting the needs of the Traffic Management Unit specialists and airspace users. Through the accomplishment of the Phase II activities, START will be ready for full field evaluations to be conducted by NASA.

As this innovative concept is directly related to the air transportation system, the most appropriate application of the START concept and prototype will be further research on ATM operational improvements. Mosaic ATM has provided significant support on numerous projects in the successful transfer of NASA research into the operational inventory of the FAA. Our approach to this technology transfer is to provide support for the transfer process, but to remain within the direction of NASA and the FAA at all times. Using this approach, the research is properly recognized as NASA technology, and the FAA receives in-depth support from an organization that already knows the details of the technology.

The START concept can provide valuable information for airlines and other flight operators about the potential constraints and congestion that flights will experience en route in the NAS. The ability of START to recommend strategic reroutes can be used by flight operators to know which of their flights may be subject to a reroute advisory. Flight operators can then use this information to plan for potential reroutes and their effect on their overall network of flight operations. Additional areas of potential use of the START concept include its use by dispatchers when planning flight plans. Advance notice of convective weather, and its expected impact on arrival routes to ZMA, can aid dispatchers in planning what routes to file, which alternative arrival airports to utilize, and how much fuel to load on the aircraft.

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