Integrated Solar Energetic Particle Warning System (ISEP)

In 2018 under the Mars Campaign Office RadWorks activity, the Johnson Space Center (JSC) / Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) / Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) groups re-established the Integrated Solar Energetic Particle (Warning System) (ISEP) collaboration to expand SRAG’s current space weather monitoring capabilities for Beyond-Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions. The project initially focused on transitioning both operational and research space weather models with a high degree of maturity to a format supporting real-time mission operations.

Building on their vast expertise, CCMC, SRAG, and the newly-formed Moon to Mars (M2M) Space Weather Analysis Office (SWAO) at GSFC have worked with the model developers to integrate these model outputs into Scoreboard interfaces, creating an ensemble approach to predicting the space environment. These Scoreboards are designed to provide a variety of information to the user, with versions specializing in projections of event probability, proton peak flux, and flux time series. An additional Scoreboard, debuted at the end of FY21, displays "All-Clear" notifications from the applicable space weather models.

In FY22, focus shifted to full integration of the Scoreboards into nominal and contingency International Space Station (ISS) Radiation console operations, centering on daily communication between the SRAG and M2M teams to enhance end user understanding of model functionality. This consistent hands-on use of the Scorboards resulted in feedback to model developers, completing the Research-to-Operations-to-Research (R2O2R) loop, and to CCMC, improving usability of the interface. The Artemis-I mission in late 2022 served as a testbed for this and other new technologies prior to the upcoming crewed Beyond-LEO missions.

As NASA focuses on preparations for the first crewed Beyond-LEO missions, the ISEP project has updated its focus to support the agency goals. The ISEP collaboration continues to monitor the Scoreboard function, implementing model updates and new models as available. Additionally, ISEP is working to update the existing Flare Scoreboard at CCMC, validate the current models represented on the Solar Particle Event (SPE) Scoreboards, and use the model results to improve SRAG’s dose projection capabilities. The SRAG console operators will benefit from this enhanced capability to inform the Flight Control Team (FCT) of the projected event likelihood, intensity and duration, which will in turn improve the ability of the team to recommend the appropriate steps for mitigation of radiation exposure from SPEs.

This effort is expected to improve SPE prediction over the current State Of the Art (SOA), based on NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasting, in the following ways:

• Increase the reliability of 24-hour SPE prediction by 10% (current SOA is True Skill Score (TSS) = 0.61)
• Develop a 7-day SPE time profile prediction capability, which is not currently measured by SWPC
• Increase warning time for SPE onset to 6-24 hours (current SOA is 88 min.) – needed for short-term planning
• Increase warning time for Energetic SPE (ESPE) to 60 min (current SOA is 10 min.) – needed for shelter deployment

This is early/mid-stage (TRL 6) — the most realistic path in is NASA SBIR/STTR, which funds small businesses and research institutions to develop technology aligned with NASA's needs (equity-free, phased funding). Check whether a current SBIR/STTR solicitation topic overlaps with this project's technology area, or contact the project directly (above) to ask.

None of these are guaranteed paths for this specific project — TechPort itself doesn't have an "apply" button. Reaching out to the contact(s) above with a specific question is usually the fastest way to find out what's actually open.