A New Class of Flare Prediction Algorithms: A Synthesis of Data, Pattern Recognition Algorithms, and First Principles Magnetohydrodynamics

Researchers have been working on flare prediction for many decades. However, the best prediction result achieved by Falconer et al. for major flares, CMEs, and solar proton events (SPEs) is a probability of detection of 39%, meaning that only 39% of the events are correctly predicted. Existing flare prediction algorithms are mainly based on a combination of data, statistical analysis, and pattern recognition algorithms. A serious deficiency of these algorithms is that they do not include the constraints and predictive power of the basic equations of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) that describe the dynamics of the plasma atmosphere. We propose a new approach to flare prediction based on combining a detailed data based description of the solar atmosphere with the equations of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). In this approach, a subset of the MHD equations take data as input, and then predict physical quantities that are not measured but may be important for predicting flares. Since the MHD equations must be obeyed by the plasma, when combined with data they also provide new constraints on pattern recognition algorithms that search for correlations between the occurrence of a flare and the values of observed and MHD model predicted quantities that describe the pre-flare plasma.

We will develop data products for NASA in extracting useful information out of several data sources such as HMI, SDO, etc.

We plan to develop a commercial software product for flare forecasting and integrate our software into the Air Force's space weather prediction system in Phase 3. Our prediction tool will be very useful for military communications, commercial communication companies, and power companies.

This is early/mid-stage (TRL 3) — the most realistic path in is NASA SBIR/STTR, which funds small businesses and research institutions to develop technology aligned with NASA's needs (equity-free, phased funding). Check whether a current SBIR/STTR solicitation topic overlaps with this project's technology area, or contact the project directly (above) to ask.

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