Developing Near Real-time Data-Assimilative Models and Tools for the Space Environment

The IDA4D and AMIE data assimilation methods are currently of limited use for real-time space weather applications because either they don't run in real-time (IDA4D) or the real-time version (AMIE) does not ingest the full complement of data needed to provide high fidelity outputs. To correct this situation, in Phase-I, we propose to demonstrate the feasibility of augmenting these algorithms so that they run in real-time, with the full complement of available data for ingestion. In Phase-I we will establish detailed system performance requirements and conceptual designs that will drive the development efforts to be performed in Phase-II. This will include constraints such as the size and resource expectations for the codes, as well as the necessary interfaces and resources for the collection and storage of data sets to be used in the assimilation, and how to respond to missing or corrupted data. An assessment of costs to build a real-time assimilative modeling capability using IDA4D and AMIE, and the cost to maintain and upgrade in the future will also be provided. The research conducted in phase-i will show a clear path towards a phase II prototype demonstration. In future Phase-II work, ASTRA will implement the augmentation of the existing IDA4D and AMIE algorithms to real-time operations, based on the conceptual designs and requirements established in Phase-I. Each requirement will be associated with a method of verification to be implemented in Phase II. The resulting data assimilative algorithms will be transferred to NASA, where they will be transformative for space weather operations. This innovation will enable the development of near real-time data-assimilative models and tools, for both solar quiet and active times, which allow for precise specification and forecasts of the space environment, beginning with solar eruptions and propagation, and including ionospheric electron density specification.

Pay-off from this SBIR investment is enormous because it utilizes already-developed and validated space weather algorithms to solve the urgent problem of ionospheric nowcasting and forecasting. The IDA4D/AMIE products will be delivered to the NASA CCMC, our first customer, in Phase-II. NASA has declared their interest in running these codes in real-time as part of a near real-time data-assimilative model, for both solar quiet and active times, which allows for precise specification and forecasts of the space environment, beginning with solar eruptions and propagation, and including ionospheric electron density specification. We expect that NASA will ask ASTRA for help transitioning the software from TRL-5 at the end of Phase-II, to TRL-9 during a Phase-III effort. The resulting data assimilative algorithms will be transformative for space weather operations at NASA, especially for ionospheric nowcasting and forecasting. High-fidelity specifications of the ionospheric electron density, like those from IDA4D, are required by NASA for many applications, including scientific analysis, communications system operations, and mission planning. Knowledge of the electron density is relevant for projects like electrodynamic tethers, and satellite radar interferometry. This will have immediate applications in mission planning, radio frequency (RF) communications, surveillance, and navigation systems, and the US electrical power grid. Total NASA revenues over 10 yrs estimated at $3.6M.

DoD is the primary user of space-weather information, but other agencies have their own interests, and there are various commercial applications of the technology. US reliance on technology for military and civilian use continues to grow, and we envisage a robust market in the US for a real-time space weather modeling product. The algorithms implemented under this SBIR contract during Phase-II will be used for high accuracy ionospheric specification in commercial software applications by ASTRA. Primary areas for applications include radio frequency (RF) communications, surveillance, and navigation systems, and the US electrical power grid. Commercialization opportunities with Navy or Air Force are likely. Customer to pay $150K/yr for support services such as integration, algorithm development, validation, CONOPS and data analysis over 5-10 yr Program lifetime. ASTRA will also provide space weather nowcast and forecast data products, and serve to customers in real-time. We expect a subscription service where customers pay a monthly fee for access to our modeling results and data analysis. Estimated revenue per sale = $10,000/month. With 20 customers, we would realize $200K/mo (or $2.4M/yr) in revenue. Over 5 years, this is $12M in revenues. Total revenue from Non-NASA Government and commercial is estimated at $28.5M over 10 yrs.

This is early/mid-stage (TRL 3) — the most realistic path in is NASA SBIR/STTR, which funds small businesses and research institutions to develop technology aligned with NASA's needs (equity-free, phased funding). Check whether a current SBIR/STTR solicitation topic overlaps with this project's technology area, or contact the project directly (above) to ask.

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