Deep-space Risk Assessment for non-Gaussian Operations and Navigation

Advanced Space, LLC (Advanced Space) and Research Institution Utah State University (USU) propose fundamental enhancements to space traffic management beyond Earth’s orbit to augment NASA’s Multi-mission Automated Deep-space Conjunction Assessment Process (MADCAP). The deep-space regime is characterized by nonlinear dynamics and a sparsity of observations – both of which can cause linear, finite conjunction assessment assumptions to break down and Gaussian uncertainty representations to lose realism – which make it more challenging to maintain object state estimates and prevent an accurate evaluation of collision risk. The proposed solution features 1) enhanced uncertainty realism using Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and Directional State Transition Tensor (DSTT) propagation; 2) comprehensive collision risk quantification enabled by adding Probability of Collision (P_C) and Hamiltonian dynamics-based Mahalanobis distance metrics that use the enhanced uncertainty representations; and 3) a data-fusion catalog maintenance architecture that leverages non-traditional tracking techniques and autonomous onboard navigation that augments current ground tracking infrastructure. The proposed approach assesses existing non-traditional observational data sources to track debris and uncooperative satellites to extend current catalog maintenance capabilities. Part of the solution for the growing population of cooperative objects will require distributed catalog maintenance via autonomous onboard navigation techniques leveraging satellite-to-satellite tracking (SST) enabled by Advanced Space’s Cislunar Autonomous Positioning System (CAPS™). Advanced Space owns and operates the first commercial satellite operating at the Moon, CAPSTONE, which verified CAPS on orbit. Augmented tracking with CAPS will reduce the aggregate uncertainty of the object catalog and improve spaceflight safety.

The proposed effort is designed to be conducted as a feasibility study. This will lead into a Phase II to refine these findings and develop the infrastructure for further collaboration. Once this technology is developed, Advanced Space will be ready to include it in our plans to further assist these organizations. First, the company will leverage relationships with other organizations and serve as the integrator that brings these organizations together. Second, the company already provides mission design, navigation, and systems engineering services to its commercial and government partners; with this innovation as a finished product, this additional service can be added as a complement to engage more entities. Finally, Advanced Space will continue to promote the benefits of cislunar space and beyond to policy makers while stressing the obvious need and benefits of this product. By order of priority, this innovation has direct applications to human exploration of the Moon and Mars, robotic landers of the Moon and Mars, orbiters at the Moon, Mars, cislunar space, and future congested destinations. By not being limited to cooperative ephemeris sharing and characterizing risk more accurately when it is currently nonexistent, this innovation provides risk reduction to human lives and costly assets. Every NASA mission will bear some level of risk due to debris, collisions, or even nefarious activity, and this innovation will deliver the building blocks to further alleviate these challenges. This tool will also be able to integrate into the ConOps of the Conjunction And Risk Assessment (CARA) team at NASA. All the listed NASA applications also apply generally to non-NASA organizations. Large applications exist for this technology outside of NASA in commercial space for both U.S. and international entities as well as the Department of Defense. All space missions have a vested interest in completing its objectives and not being destroyed in a collision – if the destination has any existing orbiters, this is a legitimate risk. Mission operators will be willing to buy into the data-sharing aspect by providing their data and receiving conjunction assessment to reduce their risks. The Office of Space Commerce (OSC) is likely the most interested party in this technology. Currently, OSC is undertaking the effort of standing up TraCSS and completing the migration from Space-Track. OSC has stated consistently that lunar and cislunar space should fall under their purview, but given limited staffing and resources, it is a later priority. If OSC is to be involved in beyond-GEO space traffic management, this technology would be a major cost-effective enabler to their efforts. Within the Earth-orbiting environment, there may be benefits as well. The framework applied to on-orbit cataloging can be an option to transition from legacy systems to a more distributed approach, which could become necessary as the number of satellites and debris grows. Additionally, some of the universal elements of this proposed approach can reduce some of the challenges in the Earth-orbiting environment.

This is a mature technology (TRL 7+) — the realistic path in is usually NASA's Technology Transfer Program: licensing an existing NASA patent, or a Space Act Agreement to use NASA facilities/expertise directly. NASA also runs a startup licensing program with no upfront fee for companies formed to commercialize a specific NASA technology.

None of these are guaranteed paths for this specific project — TechPort itself doesn't have an "apply" button. Reaching out to the contact(s) above with a specific question is usually the fastest way to find out what's actually open.