Producing a Benchmark HASDM Forecast Density Database

In this proposal, we address the looming international challenge of harmonizing the use of accurate, validated, and agreed upon thermospheric density models for improved current and predicted satellite drag estimates. Specifically, to facilitate improvements in forecasting methods, we propose to firstly build, and make publicly available, a High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) forecast density database spanning a solar cycle from 2013 to 2027. This database can become a forecasting benchmark of current U.S. operational capabilities and, from the experience of the nowcast density database we have already released, it can facilitate community-wide density forecasting research and development. This database is the first step of the proposed work toward improved density forecasting methods for the benefit of LEO operations. In addition to generating the HASDM forecast density database, we will also extend the existing Space Environment Technologies (SET) HASDM nowcast density database [Tobiska et al., 2021], currently covering 2000 to 2019, into the year 2025. The existing database is publicly available at https://spacewx.com/hasdm/ and has become widely used in the international thermospheric density modeling community as the de facto global density baseline. This work is a direct R2O2R application; we will transition current operational space weather forecasting capabilities to a research setting for evaluation of performance and data sharing. The expanded knowledge will then be transitioned back to operations to improve future capabilities via development of a Machine-Learned (ML) HASDM model.

This proposal supports NASA’s mission as defined by Grand Challenges for cutting-edge technological solutions that can i) solve important space-related problems; ii) radically improve existing capabilities; or iii) deliver new space capabilities. Under Challenge 1 (expand human presence in space), our work helps mitigate the hazards of space debris collision by providing the baseline for thermospheric density forecasting through the USSF HASDM system used by NASA CARA. The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) annual conference is the premier technical conference in the nation devoted to space domain awareness. A cross section of private sector, government, and academic participation fosters an important dialogue and this meeting sees continued growth in attendance. This reflects a growing interest in space sustainability and space commerce initiatives. National governments, private sector companies, non-governmental entities, and universities have become involved in these activities. The AMOS meeting is particularly focused on how to improve space traffic management, including how to obtain better thermospheric densities, both nowcast and forecast. A persistent theme in that community is the need for improved accuracy in LEO orbital drag calculations and this community interest directly points to solid commercial opportunities for improvements as we propose here. Our partnerships in this proposal are a direct result of expanding the contacts from AMOS into broadened commercial activity. In addition, SET has a multi-year legacy contract to support USSF 18 SDS with the HASDM solar and geomagnetic drivers, which are used for both defense and civilian neutral atmosphere density characterization. This continued support points to the critical need for improved thermospheric density systems. The proposed work provides a public and freely available benchmark of density forecasts to support commercial and research community efforts to enhance density forecasting capabilities. Additionally, a machine-learned HASDM, HASDM-Sol, will be developed to provide SET operational redundancy and also has the potential to be utilized by the commercial space industry for satellite operations.

This is a mature technology (TRL 7+) — the realistic path in is usually NASA's Technology Transfer Program: licensing an existing NASA patent, or a Space Act Agreement to use NASA facilities/expertise directly. NASA also runs a startup licensing program with no upfront fee for companies formed to commercialize a specific NASA technology.

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