Commercial data assimilation tool for operational thermospheric density

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is becoming more congested as the number of satellites continues to grow with the rising popularity and establishment of SmallSat constellations. Accordingly, there is strong interest by U.S. agencies, companies, and international organizations to manage LEO collision hazards. Improved thermospheric density nowcasts and forecasts are a critical need identified by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Working Group, a Federal interagency coordinating body. To fill this need, the work proposed here will provide a commercial data assimilation (DA) tool that combines various data sources to provide a corrected global density state. The nowcast corrected global density state can then be combined with Space Environment Technologies’ (SET) operational forecast space weather indices to produce a forecast global density state 2- to 3-days in the future. With a team of investigators that have deep experience with the development of HASDM, this Phase II work will fully construct Solari, a commercial DA tool that assimilates radar tracking data and Space Force Energy Dissipation Rates (EDRs) of calibration satellites to correct multiple background density models simultaneously and produce a global density state. The end goal is an operational commercial density nowcast and forecast data stream, with corresponding uncertainties, that offers accuracy comparable to that of HASDM. The commercial DA tool will have a flexible architecture that allows for expansion of additional measurement data sources, such as satellite GPS data, in the future. We consider four cases of growth for our commercial data assimilation tool to improve thermosphere density forecasts: civilian agency satellites, defense applications, commercial satellites, and space traffic management.

This proposal supports NASA’s mission as defined by Grand Challenges for cutting-edge technological solutions that can i) solve important space-related problems; ii) radically improve existing capabilities; or iii) deliver new space capabilities. Under Challenge 1 (expand human presence in space), our work helps mitigate the hazards of space debris collision by providing the baseline for thermospheric density forecasting through the USSF HASDM system used by NASA CARA. The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) annual conference is the premier technical conference in the nation devoted to space domain awareness. A cross section of private sector, government, and academic participation fosters an important dialogue and this meeting sees continued growth in attendance. This reflects a growing interest in space sustainability and space commerce initiatives. National governments, private sector companies, non-governmental entities, and universities have become involved in these activities. The AMOS meeting is particularly focused on how to improve space traffic management, including how to obtain better thermospheric densities. A persistent theme in that community is the need for improved accuracy in LEO orbital drag calculations and this community interest directly points to solid commercial opportunities for improvements as we propose here. Our partnerships in this proposal are a direct result of expanding the contacts from AMOS into broadened commercial activity. In addition, SET has a multi-year legacy contract to support USSF 18 SDS with the HASDM solar and geomagnetic drivers, which are used for both defense and civilian neutral atmosphere density characterization. This continued support points to the critical need for improved thermospheric density systems.

This is a mature technology (TRL 7+) — the realistic path in is usually NASA's Technology Transfer Program: licensing an existing NASA patent, or a Space Act Agreement to use NASA facilities/expertise directly. NASA also runs a startup licensing program with no upfront fee for companies formed to commercialize a specific NASA technology.

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