An Advanced Surface Flux Transport Model for Space Weather

The solar magnetic field (B) plays a key role in solar and heliospheric physics and is a crucial input for Space Weather Models. This input is in the form of full-Sun maps of B. Standard observatory maps are constructed diachronically and contain data that is as much as 27 days old. Assimilative Surface Flux transport (SFT) models can improve upon this input, by incorporating known surface flows and processes to produce a continuous approximation of the state of the photospheric magnetic field, as a sequence maps. These synchronic maps can allow space weather models to produce more accurate results. To assess uncertainty and sensitivity of solutions, SFT should produce multiple map realization sequences. Presently available SFTs are based on legacy codes that computationally can provide only a small number of realizations at low resolution in a practical amount of time. None are open source. In phase I, we developed OFTSWA (OFT for Space Weather Applications), an advanced SFT that acquires and assimilate magnetograms and produces multiple realizations at high resolution that estimate the present state of the Sun's surface magnetic field. In phase II, we will deliver an updated OFTSWA to NASA CCMC and a living database of map realizations with interfaces and tools that allow rapid assessment of the fidelity of maps for space weather models and applications. Within NASA, OFTSWA will be beneficial to the Community Coordinate Modeling Center (CCMC), especially as part of their support to the Moon to Mars Space weather Analysis Office. Outside NASA, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and the Air Force also require solar magnetic maps for Space Weather Models.

Full-Sun maps of the solar photospheric magnetic field are a key input to Space Weather models. Twelve of the models currently available at NASA CCMC require solar magnetic maps as input (or products/results derived from them). NASA CCMC also supports NASA's Moon to Mars (M2M) Space Weather Analysis Office with near real-time runs of Space Weather models that require solar magnetic maps. NASA's Satellite Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) is responsible for assessing the risk of solar particle events to astronauts, and also relies on space weather models that incorporate maps. We have created OFTSWA (Open-source Flux Transport for Space Weather Applications), an advanced SFT that acquires and assimilates magnetograms and rapidly produces multiple realizations at high resolution that estimate the present state of the Sun's surface magnetic field. Our phase II effort will deliver an updated OFTSWA to NASA CCMC and a living database of map realizations with interfaces and tools that allow a rapid assessment of the fidelity of maps. This will provide crucial inputs for NASA Space Weather models. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) runs The WSA-Enlil forecast model to predict the arrival of solar wind structures and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth. It requires full Sun magnetic maps at a cadence of one per hours. OFTSWA will provide maps with multiple realizations and high resolution, potentially improving their forecasts. Forward predictions of the solar magnetic flux are used in irradiance forecasts, which can inform Air Force models of the thermosphere/ionosphere. OFTSWA can address these requirements as well.

This is a mature technology (TRL 7+) — the realistic path in is usually NASA's Technology Transfer Program: licensing an existing NASA patent, or a Space Act Agreement to use NASA facilities/expertise directly. NASA also runs a startup licensing program with no upfront fee for companies formed to commercialize a specific NASA technology.

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