Fusion of Modeling and Simulation Credibility in Multidisciplinary Design

Entry vehicle design and aircraft design are just two examples of systems that are of interest to NASA, requiring interactions and exchange of information among multiple performance disciplines. Since any computational optimization process relies on simulation models for identifying the impact of design changes in meeting performance expectations and improving metrics of goodness, it is essential that the uncertainty quantification of these models is captured by the optimization. Fuzzy Logic (FL) provides a systematic approach for introducing linguistic articulation of mental perception into a mathematical framework. In the proposed project the FL approach will be used for introducing in an automated multidisciplinary optimization process the human judgment and the expert opinion associated with the credibility of the modeling and simulations (as stated in the NASA-STD-7009) which are utilized for making decisions. The proposing firm has developed a Decision Support Toolkit (DS Toolkit) which can be used for multidisciplinary design and for balancing many multiple competing performance objectives. The multidisciplinary analysis is done automatically due to specialized algorithms and capabilities which are embedded in the DS Toolkit; both discrete and continuous design variables can be defined. The proposed research will develop the ability to consider the credibility of the models and of the simulations which are used for evaluating the performance requirements and the performance metrics during the analysis. A Fuzzy Logic System (FLS) capability will be developed for this purpose. The membership functions in the FLS will be reflecting the credibility scores assigned by subject matter experts to each one of the eight credibility factors of a simulation. The rule bank in the FLS will capture the expert opinion of the decision makers on how the credibility of the simulations will influences the decisions which are made by the optimization process.

The proposed research will offer a new approach for multidisciplinary optimization that does not exist in any form in any of the current commercial or open source codes. It will offer a new capability to NASA Programs for conducting optimizations while accounting for uncertainty quantification associated with the credibility of models and simulations. Subject matter experts will be able to identify the credibility of each simulation which is used in the optimization by grading each one of the eight credibility factors prescribed in NASA-STD-7009. Decision makers will be able to provide their input in linguistic format on how to interpret the credibility scores when making design decisions. At that point it will also be possible to consider how critical each decision is to the success of a mission. Therefore, the end product will be of great value to all NASA Programs and to the aerospace community.

The new developments will be promoted to the shipbuilding, automotive, aircraft, space, and the military ground vehicle sectors. The common factors among these industries are: (i) all use multi-physics simulation models for assessing the performance of their products during design (ii) models of variable fidelity are used in the decision making process (iii) credibility of simulation results can only be considered by the decision makers and not by any automated multidisciplinary optimization process (iv) they all have needs for optimizing their designs while balancing performance in many conflicting disciplines (v) they all have needs for designing products based on economic viability and making the complex design optimization process easy to use Thus there is a significant commercial potential for the technology which will be developed by the proposed research.

This is early/mid-stage (TRL 4) — the most realistic path in is NASA SBIR/STTR, which funds small businesses and research institutions to develop technology aligned with NASA's needs (equity-free, phased funding). Check whether a current SBIR/STTR solicitation topic overlaps with this project's technology area, or contact the project directly (above) to ask.

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