Stochastic Queuing Model Analysis to Support Airspace Super Density Operations (ASDO)

NASA has been involved in extensive research efforts to develop advanced concepts, technologies, and procedures for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The research focus area Airspace Super-Density Operations (ASDO) pertains to highly efficient operations at the busiest airports and terminal airspace. Deterministic analysis of the proposed NextGen concepts may not be sufficient, as inability of aircraft to adhere to flight schedules exactly and operational uncertainties may significantly alter the effectiveness of the proposed concepts. The primary objective of this research proposal is to create a High-Fidelity Queuing Model of the Terminal Area and a Framework for Performing Time-Varying Stochastic Analysis of Terminal Area Operations with regards to Input Schedule and Operational Uncertainties. This Queuing Model can be used to evaluate the interaction and combined performance of multiple NextGen concepts in the ASDO research focus area. The Phase I effort will develop a sample Queuing Network Model for a moderately complex terminal area, e.g. JFK. The utility of the developed Queuing Model and Analysis Techniques will be illustrated using two case-studies in the JFK terminal area. Phase II research effort proposes to develop integrated surface/terminal area queuing model of a Metroplex. Stochastic analysis of the Metroplex will be accelerated in Phase II using Graphics Processing Units.

Apart from serving the primary function of supporting NASA research, the developed queuing model can be used: 1. As a Planning Tool by the FAA to forecast future state of the terminal area for TFM decision-making algorithms. 2. By Airline Operations Center to make decisions on canceling or re-scheduling flights in response to off-nominal events such as adverse weather conditions. 3. In Rapid Prototyping Tools that design terminal area routes and procedures to evaluate the efficiency of the designed route.

The primary application of the Queuing Model developed in the course of this research is to serve as a Stochastic Analysis Tool to evaluate proposed NextGen concepts in the terminal area.

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