A Coupled System for Assessing the Threat of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Solar Particle Events (SPEs) represent a major hazard for extravehicular maneuvers by astronauts in Earth orbit, and for eventual manned interplanetary space travel. We propose to develop a system to aid forecasters in the prediction of such events, and in the identification of ``all clear'' time periods when there is a low probability of such events occurring. The system combines empirical assessments with physics-based models by leveraging three recently developed technologies: a tool for forecasting solar eruptions from line-of-sight magnetograms (University of Alabama at Huntsville), physics-based models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere with embedded solar eruptions (Predictive Science, Inc., or PSI), and empirical/physics-based assessments of energetic particle fluxes using the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM, University of New Hampshire). When completed, the proposed SPE Threat Assessment Tool, or STAT, will represent a significant step forward in our ability to assess the possible impact of SPE events.

NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) is charged with the difficult responsibility of ensuring that the radiation exposure received by astronauts remains below established safety limits. This requires identifying periods with a high probability of no SPEs, as well as recognizing the imminent threat of an SPE. The proposed SPE Threat Assessment Tool (STAT) will aid SRAG in this endeavor by providing probabilities of a major flare or coronal mass ejection (CME) from full disk magnetograms. When an active region on the Sun is deemed to show a significant threat, STAT can estimate particle fluxes and dose rates for possible eruption times over the next several hours and days. This capability will allow SRAG to place upper limits on the severity of an upcoming event, and possibly extend all clear times even when a significant active region is visible.

SPEs are of concern not only to NASA, but to many government and commercial entities dependent on satellites and aircraft. For example, NOAA SWPC provides space weather information to a range of customers, for many of whom the forecasting of SPEs is a top priority. The Air Force is also interested in mitigation strategies for SPEs. The fledgling private manned launch services industry may wish to develop their own forecasting capabilities, as opposed to solely relying on government services. Once we have successfully developed STAT for NASA applications, we can adapt STAT to address the needs of these customers as well.

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