Quantifying Uncertainty and Kinematics of Earthquake Systems (QUAKES-A) Analytic Center Framework

We propose to develop an analytic center framework for creating a uniform crustal deformation reference model for the active plate margin of California by fusing InSAR, topographic, and GNSS geodetic imaging data. We will quantify uncertainties for the reference model, which can serve to improve earthquake forecast models and be used to improve understanding of the physical processes leading to and following earthquakes. Users will be able to access and generate custom crustal deformation products for further analysis. Our approach will be to 1) infuse GNSS network solutions into UAVSAR baseline estimation and extract features from InSAR images, 2) develop cluster analysis to identify crustal blocks and rank active fault systems spatially and temporally, 3) interpolate the analyzed InSAR and GNSS data to provide an adaptively sampled deformation field, and 4) assimilate and correlate the crustal deformation products into geodetic/seismicity-based earthquake forecasts and test against past data. All tools and products will be open source (Apache Software License, version 2) and available through geospatial web map services. The key technical challenge will be harmonizing data products with widely varying spatial and temporal resolutions that provide one or more components of the 3D time-dependent deformation field and have unique error sources and intrinsically different accuracies. Spatial resolutions range from cm to sub-meter for topography, ~10 m for airborne InSAR (UAVSAR), ~100m spaceborne InSAR, and ~10 km for GNSS. Temporal sampling can range from minutes (GNSS) to weekly, monthly, or yearly for the other geodetic imaging techniques. Processing assumptions can weaken solutions that would be strengthened using knowledge from other data types. For example, repeat pass interferometry requires an estimation of the position of the instrument at each pass and tectonic deformation can add error to baseline estimation if not properly incorporated. Error sources can bias each data set in unique ways and must be understood and accuracies quantified in order to best establish a gridded crustal deformation model that is dense in areas of rapid changes and sparse where little changes occur. Our project is divided into three main tasks: 1) Data fusion and uncertainty quantification, 2) Data management and geospatial information services (the analytic center framework) and 3) collaboration and infusion into target communities. This work is directly relevant to NASA's Earth Surface and Interior program and adds value to NASA supported GNSS and UAVSAR results. It is also relevant to the NISAR mission scheduled for launch in early 2022. Products from this project can serve to validate NISAR and methodologies developed here can be applied to NISAR data when the mission is operational. The earthquake geophysics community will benefit the most from this work, followed by disaster responders. Target users for earthquake geophysics are the multi-institutional Southern California Earthquake Center community and the US Geological Survey. Target applications communities are the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), State of California Office of Emergency Services, and local California jurisdictions.

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