Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2004-03-31

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
(2004 EJ1) 121.5 – 271.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 35,349
29 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 68 minutes
11,992,249 km
31.2 LD
routine about 101 times a year
(2004 FU162) 3.4 – 7.6
≈ a city bus
No 48,206
39 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 50 minutes
12,913 km
0.03 LD — closer than the Moon
occasional about 2 times a year
(2008 KV2) 148.8 – 332.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
Yes 40,939
33 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 59 minutes
11,352,168 km
29.5 LD
routine about 80 times a year
(2015 VC1) 9.7 – 21.6
≈ a city bus
No 21,454
17 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.9 hours
45,689,235 km
119 LD
(2017 TO2) 51.6 – 115.4
≈ a football pitch
No 30,864
25 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 78 minutes
23,135,722 km
60.2 LD
(2019 UC3) 51.8 – 115.9
≈ a football pitch
No 72,691
59 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 33 minutes
34,128,248 km
88.8 LD

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.