Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2000 EB14) | 54.8 – 122.5
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 59,125
48 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 41 minutes |
74,785,162 km 195 LD |
| (2005 JS1) | 306.6 – 685.6
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 48,754
39 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 49 minutes |
44,722,234 km 116 LD |
| (2005 KP9) | 155.1 – 346.8
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 35,534
29 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 68 minutes |
23,307,591 km 60.6 LD |
| (2005 LC) | 11.6 – 25.9
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 8,930
7 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 4.5 hours |
3,222,843 km 8.38 LD routine
about 23 times a year |
| (2008 NX) | 25.4 – 56.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 36,688
30 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 66 minutes |
38,937,118 km 101 LD |
| (2008 WQ2) | 36.7 – 82.0
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 47,087
38 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 51 minutes |
51,180,732 km 133 LD |
| (2008 YN2) | 14.6 – 32.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 46,977
38 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 51 minutes |
31,140,143 km 81.0 LD |
| (2015 KB57) | 92.2 – 206.1
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 62,617
51 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 38 minutes |
73,501,799 km 191 LD |
| (2016 DB) | 5.3 – 11.9
≈ a city bus
|
No | 60,334
49 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 40 minutes |
37,578,855 km 97.8 LD |
| (2019 HH3) | 21.1 – 47.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 68,295
55 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 35 minutes |
41,285,355 km 107 LD |
| (2019 QC4) | 53.5 – 119.7
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 44,566
36 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 54 minutes |
64,103,689 km 167 LD |
| (2019 TW) | 7.4 – 16.5
≈ a city bus
|
No | 24,393
20 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.6 hours |
72,722,188 km 189 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.