Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2011-05-05

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
164121 (2003 YT1) 1565.1 – 3499.8
≈ more than a kilometre across
Yes 93,419
76 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 26 minutes
25,110,335 km
65.3 LD
274138 (2008 FU6) 742.3 – 1659.7
≈ more than a kilometre across
No 51,693
42 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 47 minutes
29,009,096 km
75.5 LD
495316 (2014 GD45) 183.0 – 409.3
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 63,375
51 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 38 minutes
74,795,295 km
195 LD
(2010 CD55) 56.6 – 126.5
≈ a football pitch
No 22,376
18 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.8 hours
30,760,239 km
80.0 LD
(2011 BB) 221.1 – 494.4
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 34,150
28 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 70 minutes
16,295,022 km
42.4 LD
routine about 80 times a year
(2011 GC) 105.8 – 236.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 17,346
14 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.3 hours
20,746,836 km
54.0 LD
(2011 GO65) 69.3 – 154.9
≈ a football pitch
No 20,820
17 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.9 hours
22,643,460 km
58.9 LD
(2011 JV10) 3.1 – 6.8
≈ a car
No 19,210
16 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.1 hours
346,803 km
0.90 LD — closer than the Moon
routine about 4 times a year
(2014 JO25) 661.5 – 1479.2
≈ the Burj Khalifa
Yes 156,117
126 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 15 minutes
49,202,593 km
128 LD
(2014 JS57) 89.2 – 199.5
≈ a football pitch
No 36,847
30 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 65 minutes
25,957,153 km
67.5 LD
(2015 RP82) 321.0 – 717.9
≈ the Burj Khalifa
Yes 58,636
47 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 41 minutes
43,324,628 km
113 LD

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.