Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2012-05-29

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
612343 (2002 FT6) 78.1 – 174.6
≈ a football pitch
No 40,533
33 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 59 minutes
66,981,582 km
174 LD
(2011 EK47) 36.7 – 82.0
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 53,535
43 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 45 minutes
43,434,397 km
113 LD
(2012 KT42) 4.2 – 9.4
≈ a city bus
No 61,335
50 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 39 minutes
20,813 km
0.05 LD — closer than the Moon
occasional about 2 times a year
(2013 EY27) 163.1 – 364.8
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 77,698
63 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 31 minutes
73,758,812 km
192 LD
(2013 NG10) 76.7 – 171.4
≈ a football pitch
No 38,168
31 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 63 minutes
61,324,014 km
160 LD
(2017 WY14) 94.7 – 211.9
≈ a football pitch
No 86,277
70 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 28 minutes
64,244,983 km
167 LD

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.