Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2011 HD63) | 76.7 – 171.4
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 69,245
56 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 35 minutes |
56,141,156 km 146 LD |
| (2014 HD3) | 221.1 – 494.4
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 32,325
26 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 74 minutes |
13,183,060 km 34.3 LD routine
about 80 times a year |
| (2014 HQ132) | 192.6 – 430.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 39,518
32 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 61 minutes |
28,227,598 km 73.4 LD |
| (2014 KH39) | 15.3 – 34.2
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 39,807
32 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 60 minutes |
439,165 km 1.14 LD routine
about 2 times a year |
| (2014 KB46) | 28.9 – 64.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 27,341
22 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 88 minutes |
8,041,888 km 20.9 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2014 LX14) | 114.4 – 255.9
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 26,582
22 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.5 hours |
47,915,262 km 125 LD |
| (2014 LN17) | 10.6 – 23.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 88,817
72 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 27 minutes |
213,885 km 0.56 LD — closer than the Moon routine
about 4 times a year |
| (2014 LY21) | 4.0 – 9.0
≈ a city bus
|
No | 47,915
39 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 50 minutes |
20,043 km 0.05 LD — closer than the Moon occasional
about 2 times a year |
| (2017 YG7) | 30.5 – 68.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 43,540
35 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 55 minutes |
49,194,552 km 128 LD |
| (2018 DU) | 5.8 – 13.0
≈ a city bus
|
No | 40,948
33 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 59 minutes |
39,388,394 km 102 LD |
| (2018 YF2) | 179.7 – 401.8
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 114,943
93 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 21 minutes |
63,430,022 km 165 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.