Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2013 WU45) | 225.2 – 503.5
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 61,831
50 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 39 minutes |
57,120,618 km 149 LD |
| (2015 VY150) | 199.8 – 446.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 29,728
24 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 81 minutes |
23,087,287 km 60.1 LD |
| (2016 EO84) | 90.5 – 202.3
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 54,456
44 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 44 minutes |
8,360,397 km 21.7 LD routine
about 101 times a year |
| (2016 PQ39) | 160.2 – 358.1
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 83,751
68 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 29 minutes |
49,861,457 km 130 LD |
| (2018 TG2) | 3.5 – 7.8
≈ a city bus
|
No | 18,076
15 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.2 hours |
53,636,193 km 140 LD |
| (2019 CC3) | 18.4 – 41.1
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 15,173
12 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.6 hours |
8,748,663 km 22.8 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2019 DD) | 11.6 – 25.9
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 37,257
30 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 65 minutes |
2,854,233 km 7.43 LD routine
about 23 times a year |
| (2019 DO) | 21.1 – 47.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 44,145
36 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 54 minutes |
1,895,971 km 4.93 LD routine
about 9 times a year |
| (2019 DC1) | 66.8 – 149.3
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 69,797
57 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 34 minutes |
11,503,842 km 29.9 LD routine
about 101 times a year |
| (2019 ED1) | 7.9 – 17.7
≈ a city bus
|
No | 34,558
28 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 70 minutes |
391,420 km 1.02 LD routine
about 7 times a year |
| (2019 EG1) | 16.0 – 35.8
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 31,627
26 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 76 minutes |
1,408,456 km 3.66 LD routine
about 9 times a year |
| (2019 EH1) | 2.5 – 5.6
≈ a car
|
No | 56,196
46 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 43 minutes |
23,451 km 0.06 LD — closer than the Moon occasional
about 2 times a year |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.