Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 376848 (2001 RY47) | 318.1 – 711.3
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 43,382
35 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 55 minutes |
19,724,592 km 51.3 LD |
| (2001 SY169) | 63.8 – 142.6
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 93,132
75 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 26 minutes |
70,322,608 km 183 LD |
| (2005 SP9) | 126.6 – 283.2
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 59,508
48 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 40 minutes |
56,699,115 km 148 LD |
| (2008 ST) | 10.1 – 22.6
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 22,191
18 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.8 hours |
14,878,930 km 38.7 LD routine
about 57 times a year |
| (2013 ET) | 63.8 – 142.6
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 93,137
75 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 26 minutes |
70,330,128 km 183 LD |
| (2015 HA10) | 200.7 – 448.8
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 55,625
45 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 43 minutes |
38,850,386 km 101 LD |
| (2018 SD1) | 32.0 – 71.5
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 82,107
66 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 29 minutes |
35,828,310 km 93.2 LD |
| (2019 QY1) | 186.4 – 416.9
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 72,124
58 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 33 minutes |
74,134,163 km 193 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.