Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 513312 (2007 DM41) | 102.9 – 230.2
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 43,689
35 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 55 minutes |
24,922,544 km 64.8 LD |
| (2007 TH3) | 30.5 – 68.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 52,845
43 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 46 minutes |
50,420,385 km 131 LD |
| (2009 UU1) | 30.5 – 68.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 68,079
55 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 35 minutes |
44,809,139 km 117 LD |
| (2015 TS238) | 22.1 – 49.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 56,916
46 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 42 minutes |
1,813,910 km 4.72 LD routine
about 9 times a year |
| (2018 HO1) | 23.0 – 51.5
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 30,486
25 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 79 minutes |
56,973,735 km 148 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.