Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2011 OJ45) | 16.8 – 37.5
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 12,519
10 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 3.2 hours |
11,373,757 km 29.6 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2012 BF86) | 77.0 – 172.2
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 34,946
28 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 69 minutes |
11,994,242 km 31.2 LD routine
about 101 times a year |
| (2016 CE32) | 44.1 – 98.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 36,734
30 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 65 minutes |
9,363,365 km 24.4 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2016 DE1) | 23.2 – 51.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 70,426
57 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 34 minutes |
964,210 km 2.51 LD routine
about 9 times a year |
| (2016 DY30) | 2.1 – 4.7
≈ a car
|
No | 62,433
51 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 39 minutes |
14,305 km 0.04 LD — closer than the Moon occasional
about 2 times a year |
| (2016 FD1) | 63.8 – 142.6
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 44,519
36 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 54 minutes |
14,472,115 km 37.6 LD routine
about 101 times a year |
| (2017 DR109) | 8.0 – 17.9
≈ a city bus
|
No | 27,589
22 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 87 minutes |
2,951,289 km 7.68 LD routine
about 23 times a year |
| (2017 KD3) | 92.2 – 206.1
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 32,362
26 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 74 minutes |
43,422,779 km 113 LD |
| (2017 QY2) | 148.8 – 332.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 56,603
46 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 42 minutes |
57,647,951 km 150 LD |
| (2017 RP16) | 9.7 – 21.6
≈ a city bus
|
No | 71,251
58 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 34 minutes |
47,172,094 km 123 LD |
| (2017 UV7) | 13.3 – 29.8
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 35,223
29 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 68 minutes |
30,646,731 km 79.7 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.