Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2017-04-04

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
480984 (2003 YR70) 248.1 – 554.7
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 39,783
32 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 60 minutes
42,521,729 km
111 LD
(2015 EK7) 106.3 – 237.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
Yes 79,516
64 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 30 minutes
74,056,666 km
193 LD
(2015 FY284) 121.5 – 271.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 73,959
60 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 33 minutes
62,320,414 km
162 LD
(2016 VU1) 32.0 – 71.5
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 54,051
44 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 44 minutes
73,205,309 km
190 LD
(2017 EB3) 26.6 – 59.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 15,360
12 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.6 hours
5,291,399 km
13.8 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2017 EN4) 226.2 – 505.9
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 76,775
62 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 31 minutes
30,988,983 km
80.6 LD
(2017 FQ91) 24.2 – 54.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 49,230
40 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 49 minutes
5,740,686 km
14.9 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2017 FM101) 12.7 – 28.4
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 32,260
26 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 75 minutes
2,702,727 km
7.03 LD
routine about 23 times a year
(2017 FA102) 21.2 – 47.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 54,905
44 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 44 minutes
5,447,219 km
14.2 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2017 GM) 2.8 – 6.2
≈ a car
No 66,583
54 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 36 minutes
16,267 km
0.04 LD — closer than the Moon
occasional about 2 times a year
(2017 GK6) 19.3 – 43.1
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 37,513
30 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 64 minutes
1,050,767 km
2.73 LD
routine about 9 times a year
(2017 GN6) 7.0 – 15.6
≈ a city bus
No 19,954
16 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.0 hours
1,561,706 km
4.06 LD
routine about 15 times a year
(2017 JT2) 453.5 – 1014.0
≈ the Burj Khalifa
Yes 93,024
75 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 26 minutes
38,895,054 km
101 LD
(2018 ER1) 19.1 – 42.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 18,879
15 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.1 hours
4,878,123 km
12.7 LD
routine about 58 times a year

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.