Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 480984 (2003 YR70) | 248.1 – 554.7
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 39,783
32 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 60 minutes |
42,521,729 km 111 LD |
| (2015 EK7) | 106.3 – 237.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 79,516
64 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 30 minutes |
74,056,666 km 193 LD |
| (2015 FY284) | 121.5 – 271.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 73,959
60 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 33 minutes |
62,320,414 km 162 LD |
| (2016 VU1) | 32.0 – 71.5
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 54,051
44 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 44 minutes |
73,205,309 km 190 LD |
| (2017 EB3) | 26.6 – 59.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 15,360
12 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.6 hours |
5,291,399 km 13.8 LD routine
about 58 times a year |
| (2017 EN4) | 226.2 – 505.9
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 76,775
62 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 31 minutes |
30,988,983 km 80.6 LD |
| (2017 FQ91) | 24.2 – 54.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 49,230
40 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 49 minutes |
5,740,686 km 14.9 LD routine
about 58 times a year |
| (2017 FM101) | 12.7 – 28.4
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 32,260
26 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 75 minutes |
2,702,727 km 7.03 LD routine
about 23 times a year |
| (2017 FA102) | 21.2 – 47.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 54,905
44 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 44 minutes |
5,447,219 km 14.2 LD routine
about 58 times a year |
| (2017 GM) | 2.8 – 6.2
≈ a car
|
No | 66,583
54 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 36 minutes |
16,267 km 0.04 LD — closer than the Moon occasional
about 2 times a year |
| (2017 GK6) | 19.3 – 43.1
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 37,513
30 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 64 minutes |
1,050,767 km 2.73 LD routine
about 9 times a year |
| (2017 GN6) | 7.0 – 15.6
≈ a city bus
|
No | 19,954
16 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.0 hours |
1,561,706 km 4.06 LD routine
about 15 times a year |
| (2017 JT2) | 453.5 – 1014.0
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
Yes | 93,024
75 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 26 minutes |
38,895,054 km 101 LD |
| (2018 ER1) | 19.1 – 42.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 18,879
15 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.1 hours |
4,878,123 km 12.7 LD routine
about 58 times a year |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.