Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260277 (2004 TR12) | 589.6 – 1318.4
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 55,618
45 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 43 minutes |
30,398,631 km 79.1 LD |
| (2007 AM) | 115.0 – 257.1
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 46,451
38 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 52 minutes |
69,414,332 km 181 LD |
| (2009 YS) | 23.2 – 51.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 51,425
42 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 47 minutes |
58,933,352 km 153 LD |
| (2015 YA) | 8.8 – 19.7
≈ a city bus
|
No | 35,391
29 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 68 minutes |
42,366,963 km 110 LD |
| (2016 FZ12) | 11.6 – 25.9
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 62,774
51 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 38 minutes |
46,169,202 km 120 LD |
| (2016 RS) | 62.0 – 138.7
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 26,277
21 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.5 hours |
37,799,731 km 98.3 LD |
| (2017 XD) | 896.5 – 2004.7
≈ more than a kilometre across
|
No | 133,396
108 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 18 minutes |
48,014,449 km 125 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.