Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 523934 (1998 FF14) | 200.7 – 448.8
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 84,523
68 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 28 minutes |
15,393,501 km 40.0 LD routine
about 80 times a year |
| (2004 TB10) | 133.2 – 297.9
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 41,660
34 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 58 minutes |
35,666,462 km 92.8 LD |
| (2014 SQ260) | 41.7 – 93.3
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 44,323
36 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 54 minutes |
39,365,624 km 102 LD |
| (2015 EQ7) | 50.6 – 113.3
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 22,630
18 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.8 hours |
29,487,899 km 76.7 LD |
| (2016 FL12) | 14.6 – 32.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 26,290
21 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.5 hours |
63,605,340 km 165 LD |
| (2017 GK4) | 116.6 – 260.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 43,803
35 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 55 minutes |
18,423,686 km 47.9 LD routine
about 101 times a year |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.