Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 1982-01-14

← Back to history

Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
418896 (2009 AK15) 337.7 – 755.2
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 59,409
48 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 40 minutes
38,209,061 km
99.4 LD
506491 (2003 UW29) 193.4 – 432.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
Yes 96,786
78 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 25 minutes
17,639,286 km
45.9 LD
routine about 80 times a year
(2008 CK70) 27.8 – 62.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 40,121
32 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 60 minutes
73,169,477 km
190 LD
(2008 ED8) 44.1 – 98.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 78,261
63 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 31 minutes
68,009,825 km
177 LD
(2013 UM9) 32.4 – 72.5
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 31,117
25 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 77 minutes
74,276,413 km
193 LD
(2016 VK) 84.1 – 187.9
≈ a football pitch
No 78,852
64 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 30 minutes
74,785,330 km
195 LD
(2019 WK5) 193.4 – 432.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 40,597
33 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 59 minutes
28,681,910 km
74.6 LD
(2020 BM1) 20.2 – 45.1
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 38,798
31 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 62 minutes
12,283,870 km
32.0 LD
routine about 138 times a year

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.