Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 482234 (2011 CG71) | 83.3 – 186.2
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 7,833
6 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 5.1 hours |
36,564,006 km 95.1 LD |
| (2011 AR26) | 233.6 – 522.4
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 78,681
64 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 31 minutes |
65,474,446 km 170 LD |
| (2011 YD29) | 14.6 – 32.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 24,275
20 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.7 hours |
2,464,701 km 6.41 LD routine
about 25 times a year |
| (2013 NX23) | 492.7 – 1101.6
≈ the Burj Khalifa
|
No | 29,204
24 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 82 minutes |
74,786,907 km 195 LD |
| (2013 OY3) | 29.4 – 65.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 39,430
32 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 61 minutes |
54,258,500 km 141 LD |
| (2013 WV45) | 27.8 – 62.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 21,366
17 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.9 hours |
9,149,724 km 23.8 LD routine
about 138 times a year |
| (2013 YF) | 63.8 – 142.6
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 51,263
42 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 47 minutes |
22,791,101 km 59.3 LD |
| (2013 YA14) | 46.2 – 103.3
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 33,571
27 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 72 minutes |
5,104,345 km 13.3 LD routine
about 24 times a year |
| (2014 AB16) | 21.1 – 47.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 42,040
34 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 57 minutes |
4,547,039 km 11.8 LD routine
about 58 times a year |
| (2016 AR8) | 21.1 – 47.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 35,947
29 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 67 minutes |
27,560,076 km 71.7 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.