Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2014-08-27

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
(2010 FA81) 87.2 – 195.0
≈ a football pitch
No 21,855
18 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.8 hours
66,415,052 km
173 LD
(2010 MA) 19.3 – 43.1
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 59,442
48 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 40 minutes
52,547,758 km
137 LD
(2014 DG23) 25.4 – 56.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 37,658
30 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 64 minutes
39,591,022 km
103 LD
(2014 HE3) 264.6 – 591.6
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 43,891
36 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 55 minutes
18,847,324 km
49.0 LD
routine about 80 times a year
(2014 QD33) 27.8 – 62.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 44,964
36 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 53 minutes
5,516,939 km
14.4 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2014 QZ265) 23.2 – 51.8
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 53,117
43 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 45 minutes
4,236,720 km
11.0 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2014 QP434) 7.3 – 16.4
≈ a city bus
No 34,738
28 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 69 minutes
465,461 km
1.21 LD
routine about 7 times a year
(2014 RK17) 92.2 – 206.1
≈ a football pitch
No 51,930
42 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 46 minutes
31,025,185 km
80.7 LD
(2014 XD8) 437.1 – 977.3
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 74,390
60 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 32 minutes
74,798,651 km
195 LD
(2015 DE200) 235.8 – 527.3
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 67,775
55 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 35 minutes
58,885,228 km
153 LD
(2016 RZ17) 21.1 – 47.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 70,843
57 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 34 minutes
60,289,977 km
157 LD
(2017 DF38) 16.8 – 37.5
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 34,069
28 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 71 minutes
15,417,508 km
40.1 LD
routine about 138 times a year
(2017 RU15) 74.2 – 166.0
≈ a football pitch
No 34,583
28 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 70 minutes
17,927,710 km
46.6 LD
routine about 101 times a year
(2018 QS1) 8.0 – 17.9
≈ a city bus
No 57,141
46 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 42 minutes
68,094,539 km
177 LD

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.