Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2015-09-22

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
(2001 SQ3) 108.3 – 242.1
≈ the Great Pyramid
Yes 62,921
51 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 38 minutes
23,703,799 km
61.7 LD
(2010 CD55) 56.6 – 126.5
≈ a football pitch
No 67,716
55 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 36 minutes
60,759,774 km
158 LD
(2010 QA5) 98.3 – 219.8
≈ a football pitch
No 74,716
61 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 32 minutes
17,824,538 km
46.4 LD
routine about 101 times a year
(2014 SS261) 14.6 – 32.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 54,856
44 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 44 minutes
56,934,643 km
148 LD
(2015 GY12) 20.2 – 45.1
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 37,961
31 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 63 minutes
58,420,469 km
152 LD
(2015 SJ7) 21.1 – 47.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 31,761
26 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 76 minutes
7,534,554 km
19.6 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2015 SK7) 4.4 – 9.9
≈ a city bus
No 49,351
40 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 49 minutes
26,614 km
0.07 LD — closer than the Moon
occasional about 2 times a year
(2016 AG165) 174.0 – 389.1
≈ the Great Pyramid
No 44,841
36 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 54 minutes
53,973,015 km
140 LD
(2016 EL27) 16.0 – 35.8
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 44,960
36 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 53 minutes
43,370,819 km
113 LD
(2016 EO28) 3.8 – 8.6
≈ a city bus
No 19,409
16 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.1 hours
52,621,791 km
137 LD
(2018 FM3) 9.7 – 21.6
≈ a city bus
No 10,553
9 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 3.8 hours
3,574,508 km
9.30 LD
routine about 23 times a year

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.