Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2010 SJ) | 46.2 – 103.3
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 69,818
57 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 34 minutes |
74,094,317 km 193 LD |
| (2012 KT42) | 4.2 – 9.4
≈ a city bus
|
No | 42,166
34 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 57 minutes |
33,774,141 km 87.9 LD |
| (2017 EJ3) | 60.1 – 134.3
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 24,664
20 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.6 hours |
38,056,500 km 99.0 LD |
| (2017 SX20) | 39.5 – 88.3
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 57,428
47 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 42 minutes |
63,429,518 km 165 LD |
| (2018 AG12) | 48.4 – 108.2
≈ a football pitch
|
No | 30,201
24 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 80 minutes |
64,143,759 km 167 LD |
| (2018 SL1) | 16.0 – 35.8
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 43,941
36 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 55 minutes |
46,951,512 km 122 LD |
| (2018 TZ1) | 26.6 – 59.4
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 49,783
40 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 48 minutes |
43,654,128 km 114 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.