Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:
The two terms:
AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing.
See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.
So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.
Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:
| Object | Size | Orbit’s closest to Earth’s | Missed by, that day | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 JR28 | 122–272 m | 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) | 39.2 M km | Yes — both tests pass |
| 2012 LE11 | 629–1,406 m | 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) | 26.1 M km | No — orbit never gets near enough |
| 2007 EK | 3.7–8.2 m | 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) | 4.2 M km | No — far too small |
The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.
“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.
| Name | Diameter (m) | Hazardous | Velocity (km/h) | Miss distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3988 Huma (1986 LA) | 683.2 – 1527.7
≈ more than a kilometre across
|
No | 28,559
23 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 84 minutes |
27,726,834 km 72.1 LD |
| 452807 (2006 KV89) | 132.0 – 295.1
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 19,413
16 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.1 hours |
43,415,833 km 113 LD |
| (2005 JU81) | 116.6 – 260.6
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
Yes | 33,389
27 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 72 minutes |
70,917,438 km 184 LD |
| (2007 PB8) | 142.1 – 317.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 47,827
39 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 50 minutes |
35,788,510 km 93.1 LD |
| (2010 RE31) | 17.6 – 39.3
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
|
No | 30,922
25 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 78 minutes |
45,246,113 km 118 LD |
| (2011 MD) | 6.7 – 15.1
≈ a city bus
|
No | 24,129
20 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.7 hours |
18,651 km 0.05 LD — closer than the Moon occasional
about 2 times a year |
| (2011 WO46) | 27.8 – 62.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 14,046
11 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 2.9 hours |
68,678,420 km 179 LD |
| (2013 NE15) | 101.1 – 226.0
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 41,156
33 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 58 minutes |
56,424,682 km 147 LD |
| (2016 PH38) | 201.6 – 450.9
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 54,200
44 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 44 minutes |
58,270,074 km 152 LD |
| (2016 XR1) | 38.1 – 85.1
≈ an airliner's wingspan
|
No | 23,603
19 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 1.7 hours |
20,230,194 km 52.6 LD |
| (2017 TF2) | 231.5 – 517.7
≈ the Great Pyramid
|
No | 29,995
24 times the speed of sound round the Earth in 80 minutes |
65,244,086 km 170 LD |
The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.