Illustration of Earth with several asteroids passing at different distances, one flagged as potentially hazardous

Asteroids on 2017-03-02

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Why is one asteroid “hazardous” when closer ones are not?

Because the flag has nothing to do with how close it came on the day. NASA marks an object a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid only if both of these are true of its orbit and its size:

  • Its orbit can bring it within 0.05 AU of Earth’s — about 7.5 million km. This is the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance, the closest the two paths ever come, not the distance on any given pass.
  • It is big enough to matter — absolute magnitude 22.0 or brighter, which is roughly 140 metres across and up. That threshold is a planning convention, not a physical boundary: it is about the size at which an impact could do regional damage. Smaller objects are not harmless, they are simply outside this definition — the Chelyabinsk object of 2013 was around 20 metres and injured about 1,500 people with the shock wave from its airburst, without ever reaching the ground intact.

The two terms: AU — astronomical unit, the average Earth–Sun distance, 149,597,871 km. 0.05 AU is about 7.5 million km.
MOID — minimum orbit intersection distance, the closest the two orbits ever come, whatever the timing. See the glossary for NEO, PHA and H.

So a large rock passing at 39 million km today can be flagged, because on some future orbit it could come far nearer — while a pebble skimming past at 4 million km is not, because it would never reach the ground.

Three objects that all passed Earth on 30 August 2026 make the point better than any definition:

Object Size Orbit’s closest to Earth’s Missed by, that day Flagged
2013 JR28 122–272 m 5.3 M km (0.035 AU) 39.2 M km Yes — both tests pass
2012 LE11 629–1,406 m 23.3 M km (0.156 AU) 26.1 M km No — orbit never gets near enough
2007 EK 3.7–8.2 m 198,000 km (0.0013 AU) 4.2 M km No — far too small

The middle one is five times larger than the flagged one and passed closer on the day, but its path can never come within 23 million km of ours. The last one’s orbit crosses inside the Moon’s distance — nearer than any other object here — and it is still not hazardous, because at a few metres across it would burn up long before it landed.

“Potentially hazardous” is a watchlist criterion, not a prediction. None of these is on a collision course; the label means an object is worth keeping precise track of over the coming centuries.

Name Diameter (m) Hazardous Velocity (km/h) Miss distance
(2006 SE6) 67.7 – 151.4
≈ a football pitch
No 63,749
52 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 38 minutes
69,290,123 km
180 LD
(2008 TC2) 55.5 – 124.2
≈ a football pitch
No 65,039
53 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 37 minutes
39,877,603 km
104 LD
(2011 OJ45) 16.8 – 37.5
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 29,245
24 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 82 minutes
11,914,708 km
31.0 LD
routine about 138 times a year
(2012 DR32) 29.1 – 65.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 59,565
48 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 40 minutes
1,797,302 km
4.68 LD
routine about 9 times a year
(2016 EF156) 30.5 – 68.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 105,801
86 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 23 minutes
62,632,031 km
163 LD
(2017 BU6) 90.9 – 203.3
≈ a football pitch
No 33,794
27 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 71 minutes
13,018,861 km
33.9 LD
routine about 101 times a year
(2017 CQ1) 36.7 – 82.0
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 20,158
16 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.0 hours
13,852,479 km
36.0 LD
routine about 138 times a year
(2017 CO5) 249.2 – 557.2
≈ the Burj Khalifa
No 54,258
44 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 44 minutes
60,177,432 km
157 LD
(2017 EA) 1.8 – 4.1
≈ a car
No 66,315
54 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 36 minutes
20,897 km
0.05 LD — closer than the Moon
occasional about 2 times a year
(2017 ED) 14.6 – 32.7
≈ the Chelyabinsk object
No 18,061
15 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 2.2 hours
2,056,508 km
5.35 LD
routine about 25 times a year
(2017 EF3) 36.7 – 82.0
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 61,450
50 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 39 minutes
7,111,359 km
18.5 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2017 EJ3) 60.1 – 134.3
≈ a football pitch
No 23,880
19 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.7 hours
28,377,316 km
73.8 LD
(2017 FR102) 30.2 – 67.6
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 33,957
28 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 71 minutes
6,089,658 km
15.8 LD
routine about 58 times a year
(2019 QJ4) 24.2 – 54.2
≈ an airliner's wingspan
No 21,561
17 times the speed of sound
round the Earth in 1.9 hours
15,689,224 km
40.8 LD
routine about 138 times a year

The tag beside a distance says how often an approach at least that close, by an object of that size, appears in 127 years of this archive — a frequency rather than a percentile, because almost every close approach would score in the top few per cent and the scale would say nothing. Approaches beyond 50 lunar distances get no tag, since there is nothing useful to say about them. The counts are a floor: the archive holds the objects known today, and most of the undiscovered ones are small. The ≈ line beside a diameter compares size only. What an impact would do depends on speed, angle, composition and where it arrives, and none of that follows from width — the Chelyabinsk comparison in particular names a body remembered for its airburst, not for how wide it was.